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A Good Call with Google

At the investment company I work for, their general approach to earnings is not to play them either way. Overall, I think this makes a lot of sense, because it often seems like a risky move to buy or sell a stock before it announces earnings in hope that it will move one way or the other.

So I really had to be sure before I spoke up on Wednesday’s stock meeting about Google. I should preface this by saying that even though I have been very happy with my portfolios (both real and paper) in the past year, and feel as though I have learned quite a lot in the past year and a half, I still am very nervous whenever I speak up at this meetings. Combined, these people have a century (or more) of knowledge about the stock market, bachelors and masters degrees in finance, and to top it all off are just extremely intelligent people. I think they invited me to this meeting last year both to encourage my interest in investments as well as get a “fresh” opinion on things - even if that opinion was based on a few months of investment experience.

Anyway, about a month ago, Google’s stock got hit when ComScore, who is kind of like the Nielsen ratings of the internet, announced that its growth from online advertising sales was slowing drastically. I immediately put 10% of my portfolio in the stock, for three reasons. First of all, ComScore is notoriously inaccurate. I had actually researched the stock last year as a possible investment, before reading too many stories about how their calls were often way off. Second, by spending a lot of time in the online advertisement industry, I can see first hand how Google’s online advertisements are continuing to grow.

Last, I feel as though Google is one of the best overall companies I have seen in my lifetime. It is well run, has a great business model, and puts out incredible products. I never got a chance to buy into Google last year, so I felt as though buying it nearly 375 points off it high was a great deal.

So at this meeting Wednesday, I said that I strongly felt that the next day, Google would beat earnings estimate and everyone who sold off in fear the month before would dive back in.

And, incredibly, I was right. Google opened this morning up 80 points, or nearly 20%.

I feel really, really good. I know that, like all investing, there was a good amount of luck in this. But I feel as though this was a great example of how you can really benefit from investing when you understand not only a company, but the company’s stock as well.

My only regret was not purchasing ten real-money shares on Wednesday like I was tempted to. If I had done that, I would have gained about $800 overnight.


3 Comments so far
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I’ve been holding 10 shares of GOOG@$286 since 2005. These kinds of big swings make me wish I was more effective at picking points to trade at. Nonetheless, it’s a great day to be long GOOG. For what it’s worth Cramer got this one wrong: http://seekingalpha.com/article/72173-google-s-hiring-binge-cramer-s-stoptrading-4-11-08

Good thing I’ve learned to ignore Cramer in the past year.

Hey, if you bought it at $286 I’d say you are pretty good a picking a point to buy at!

That’s funny, I didn’t realize Cramer said that. I know it used to be one of his “four horsemen” but I guess he changed his mind. I actually like the guy - his autobiography was the first investment related book I read and it really got me interested in the whole thing - but he’s had some bad luck lately with stock reommendations.

Hey, that’s great, I was thinking that it might be a good time to buy Google as well (though, of course, I didn’t). I’ve been in the online media world for a while and seen how all of the companies that track clicks can be wildly off base. It’s interesting, because it makes you realize that the ratings for TV must be equally inaccurate.



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